The thinking behind the models.

The stablecoin-only model had an R² of 0.86. Adding DeFi TVL and RWA tokenization takes it to 0.902 — and captures where the growth is actually coming from. Combined TVL on Ethereum now sits at $230 billion. Model price: $3,217. Z-score: −0.97.

A confluence of miner production cost proximity, RV7/RV30 volatility spike, and 90-day drawdown depth as a framework for identifying major bear market lows. All three signals fired simultaneously in February 2026 — the first full confluence of this cycle.

The more stablecoins are secured on Ethereum, the more critical securing the network becomes. As large US banks and institutions move stablecoins onto Ethereum, the network's market cap relative to stablecoins held on-chain becomes a dominant valuation driver — one that holds even as broader crypto sentiment turns negative.